Brookings Institution quantifies Turner’s failings of OH-3

Life has been good for “Meds, Feds and Eds” in the Miami Valley under Mike Turner- because that’s all we seem to have left. After GM closed its manufacturing plant here (after massive local tax dollar support- the clear coat paint line, not the federal bailout), NCR leaving (after massive Georgia and NYC public tax dollar incentives), DHL closing down Wilmington (after massive tax dollar support)- we’re left with high unemployment, a gerrymandered district, and a Congressman who can’t give you an example of one way HE would do things to change things nationally to help locally. Of course, he has plenty of ideas for earmarks- because Turner admits he’s for sale (NCR was not only one of his largest donors- it was also a recipient of an earmark that he had pulled when they left). I’ve repeatedly called for an end to “Corporate Welfare” on this site.

The only problem with using the following Brookings Institution numbers to blame Turner specifically- is they are by Dayton’s MSA- not by the insane boundaries of OH-3, if that was the region measured, unemployment and production drop figures would be even bigger:

The Dayton area ranks in the bottom 10 among the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas in both loss of employment and loss of economic activity since 2004, a new report by the Brookings Institution has found.

Through the end of March of this year, the Dayton Metropolitan Statistical Area — which is comprised of Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preble counties — saw an 11 percent drop in employment and 4.1 percent drop in goods and services produced as compared to the third quarter of 2004, when employment and economic production reached their peak among the metro areas. Both of the Dayton MSA’s figures ranked ninth-worst among the 100 largest metro areas.

Dayton’s 11 percent employment drop almost doubles the 6.4 percent average drop for the 100 metro areas and the 6.1 percent drop for the nation as a whole. The loss in gross metropolitan product was much larger than the 0.2 percent drop for the 100 metros and 0.8 percent growth for the nation.

The report is another look at familiar bad news for Dayton and other Ohio metro areas, said Jennifer Bradley, senior research assistant for the Brookings Institution.

“It’s sobering to see that a lot of Ohio metros, particularly those that have been especially dependent upon the auto industry are really struggling,” said Bradley, who also co-directs the Washington D.C.-based institution’s Great Lakes Economic Initiative….

Perhaps one bright spot for the Dayton area was that it fared much better than most in housing price decline. The region ranked 37th out of 100 in the drop in housing prices over the last three years. Prices in the region dropped 11.0 percent, about half of the 21.4 percent average drop among all the metro areas.

By comparison, the worst housing drops over three years were in Modesto and Stockton, Calif., where prices dived a whopping 55.5 and 55.3 percent. Las Vegas dropped 53.4 percent over three years and almost 22 percent last year alone

via Dayton metro area gets 9th worst ranking in U.S..

The only reason our housing didn’t get hammered as bad was that we were already overbuilt, losing population and our housing values never bubbled. Yet, our housing has lost much of its value thanks to predatory lending, induced foreclosures and foreclosures due to job loss.

Turner can’t point to a single position he’s taken to defend his constituents from this giant sucking of value out of the community- leaving it prime for vulture capitalists to come steal what’s left. Entire office towers are in foreclosure and some are being auctioned off- including one right across the street from Turner’s new luxury condo in Performance Place (which have also seen huge drops in value).

The pillaging of our community, while Turner continues to accept massive campaign donations (despite lack of credible challengers) from special interests and the wealthy are a good reason to challenge his incumbency.

On July 13th, Democrats, independents and Republicans who are willing to sign a form 10z and come over to the D side- can choose me to be the Democratic challenger to Mike Turner. For that to happen, I’ll need your support: www.electesrati.com/donate

You can find my positions on how to turn this around throughout the many posts on this site. Please explore- and comment on the issues or ideas you find most interesting- you will get a response from me.

Thank you.

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22 Responses

  1. "I'm wrong" again! June 16, 2010 / 9:07 am
    David- I usually enjoy reading your blog , becuse I believe in hearing all sides – but enough is enough. I’m surpised you haven’t written a post blaming Turner for touchdown Jesus burning down yet!!!!

    in your post you forgot to mention the fatally flawed economic policies of the bush and Obama adminsitrations that have led to a near great-depression economic downturn!!! how about the NATION wide housing and foreclosure crisis!? a quick google of Turner on unemployment issues has shown he has held numerous DC an local hearings, offered legislation aand amendments, and champions several caucuses. I don’t generally vote Republican but Turner has done alot to help Montgomery county ( not to mention job retraining and benefits for my uncle down in Clinton and Highland with DHL leaving)

    you probably blame Turner for the goal England gave up the other day! how about the bad weather or my balding head! I’m sure that’s post worthy!

  2. David Esrati June 16, 2010 / 9:21 am

    @Wrong- please stop using the e-mail address you use. It creates issues.

    Go ahead- if Turner’s done so – post links.

    I don’t blame Bush or Obama anymore- I blame the citizens of the United States for allowing our system of “free elections” for turning into auctions- selling politicians and legislation to the highest bidder.

    You obviously haven’t been reading my site for very long. This isn’t a Republican or Democrat thing- it’s an apathetic voter thing.

     

  3. "I'm wrong" again! June 16, 2010 / 10:06 am
    David- you again have no substantive response to any of the substantive issues outlined in my post. you again default to your bitter whining and blaming Turner for everything and anything

    now you have lowered yourself to criticizing and demenaing the people you want to represent??? I really don’t appreciate a candidate who wants to represent me to be personally putting me and and my fellow constiuents down.

    you have proven you have no understanding of your opponents positions or actions, or the positions or actions of the United States Congress.

  4. David Esrati June 16, 2010 / 10:12 am

    @Wrong again: see posts in following categories:

    End corporate welfare

    Our Broken political system

    hot button issues

    The Economic Divide

    Reviving Dayton Neighborhoods

    Ohio 3rd Congressional race

    Mike Turner Congressman

    My positions are all here. You want soundbite politics- go see Turner’s site.

    And yes, with less than 50% of Americans even registered to vote, I blame our citizens for their choices.

    It goes right along with the fact that less than 7% of our young people are even qualified to serve in the Armed Forces anymore. I served in the Army- Turner has served his corporate masters. Your choice.

     

  5. Donald Phillips June 16, 2010 / 12:53 pm
    I don’t understand, don’t the Metroids have all the solutions to Dayton’s problems? 

    Mike Turner is a politician, and unlike the person a , person b and the former health insurance executive, doesn’t represent himself as a paladin.

    Right you are Mr. Esrati, blame “the people” for not bankrolling your Scandinavian sandbox.
    (this comment has been edited for name calling)

  6. Greg Hunter June 17, 2010 / 10:10 am

    I don’t generally vote Republican but Turner has done alot to help Montgomery county ( not to mention job retraining and benefits for my uncle down in Clinton and Highland with DHL leaving)
    you probably blame Turner for the goal England gave up the other day! how about the bad weather or my balding head! I’m sure that’s post worthy!

    Yes Mr. Turner is all for Socialism when it buys votes, but when it comes to putting money in a direction that will lead the 3rd District to a brighter future.   Mr. Turner’s entire career has been one of not recognizing the “future” but being a Yes man to the people that want to fleece the hardworking middle class.  He is on the Armed Services and was President of Home Builders Association.  He is a sprawl and war monger on the highest level.  With a brain like Turners if all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail.
    Continued unemployment checks for autoworkers is not a wise use of  public dollars as the end of the oil age means the end of autos and shipping stuff ala DHL.
    What pray tell is your uncle “training” to do?  Load bombs on a plane?  Use a computer?  Or go back to pig farming.  Since Missile Boy Mikey has been able to discern the nuances of missile defense it seems he should be able to design worker training for DHL employees right into a big time job.  Go Mikey GO!

  7. Steve June 17, 2010 / 10:11 am
    David, I think one of Mike Turner’s campaign strategies is to get everyone bamboozled at the prospect of bringing UAV operations to the Wilmington Air Park. The FAA has made it very clear that unmanned flights will not be permitted over the area, but Turner and DDN continue to claim it will bring jobs to the airpark. They are going to ride this one all the way to the bank.

    I would advise you have a clear suggestion for re-use of the Air Park that has a realistic shot of working. As the OH-3 Rep, it is your job to find any and all funding to bring jobs back to the air park. If you don’t have a clear plan, you will get zero votes from down south. Just a thought.   The only suggestions I’ve heard from you have zero chance of actually happening (Ground Transit Freight Hub and NASCAR track)

    Awaiting my flogging in 3, 2, 1…

  8. David Esrati June 17, 2010 / 10:59 am

    @Steve- I wish I had an answer for the Airpark. It would have been ideal as a regional airport 40 years ago.

    It’s not up to government to fix everything- it’s governments job to get out of the way.

    It can still work as a distribution/repair depot- as it was- especially if we figure out a way to make it the most cost efficient hub for that- ie- less tax, better infrastructure (maybe a super high speed rail link to the new airhubs in Cincy, and Memphis for FedEx (trains can haul more faster than planes over these short distances).

    But- I’m open to your suggestions, since you (and all the rest of my readers) are all so much smarter than I am.

  9. David Lauri June 17, 2010 / 11:17 am
    I really don’t appreciate a candidate who wants to represent me to be personally putting me and and my fellow constiuents [sic] down.

     
    Mr. I’m Wrong, I do think you’re wrong that David Esrati hasn’t taken substantive positions on issues, but I think you’ve got a point about how he chooses to approach potential voters. You’re not the first potential voter he’s alienated. See this comment from last year in which another potential voter says:

    You have contempt for the voters because you think they are all stupid. You’ve even written it on your site. Voters can tell you look down on them and they aren’t about to vote for someone who does that.

     
    Publicly “blam[ing] our citizens for their choices” may be a valid conclusion based on solid evidence, but is it an effective strategy for gaining political office beyond a county party’s central committee? As I’ve pointed out before on Esrati.com, if David really wants to win an election, “[s]omething [he] need[s] to learn is that part of being a viable politician is being able to mask one’s contempt for voters one considers stupid.”
     
    I do think we’re better off for having David run for office, and given our other choices I’ve voted for him in the past and will vote for him again.  I’m not holding my breath, however, hoping that that he’ll actually win.

  10. Steve June 17, 2010 / 11:34 am
    Don’t tell me, tell the people. Maybe get DDN to write up an article about your idea, give you credit, and get the word out.

    Option 1 for the Airpark is to maintain it and wait for private money to come in and reuse it.

    Option 2 is to spend a little bit of money to repurpose the buildings so private money has to take a little less risk and be more likely to take over the complex.

    Option 3 is to use the faculity for a public purpose such as a UAV R&D center or air base.

    I’m thinking somewhere between 2 and 3. Whichever option is chosen, Clinton County Port Authority cannot do it by themselves, and the OH-3 rep will play a HUGE part of what happens there (which in turn affects all of Clinton and Highland county and more).  

    Say there’s a program in California that can move to Wilmington. The cost of doing business is probably way less here, so wouldn’t that be a way to save taxpayer money and boost the region at the same time?

  11. David Esrati June 17, 2010 / 11:40 am

    If voters really loved the way we hold and run elections- more than half of them would actually be registered- and more than half of those would actually vote.

    I believe that instant-runoff voting, or the “alternative voting” system would solve a lot of the problems in this country- including the gridlock caused by the two party duopoly now in power.

    I’m fine with the criticism. It keeps me humble. What I’m most interested in is keeping the line of communications open- between representative and constituent.

  12. David Esrati June 17, 2010 / 11:43 am

    @Steve- the UAV piloting program- already went to the Springfield ONGAFB- Austria’s district. I’m sure people in Clinton County have a lot of good ideas. Hopefully- they’ll find their way here.

    I haven’t had time to study this in depth- and would like a full briefing. However, the fact is- OH-3 won’t include the airpark after the next round of redistricting – so it may not be a huge campaign issue.

    I’m more worried about getting Moraine General Assembly making something again.

  13. bobby June 17, 2010 / 11:47 am
    Greg,  Mike Turner was not the President of the Homebuilders Association.
  14. Greg Hunter June 17, 2010 / 12:56 pm
    I stand corrected… He was president of raj soin’s jmd development. Sprawl and the financing for raj’s military contracts.
  15. Bubba Jones June 17, 2010 / 5:20 pm
    >>> I’m more worried about getting Moraine General Assembly making something again. <<<
     
    Why are you MORE worried about the GM plant???  Be sure to tell that to the good people that used to work at the air park and I’m sure you’ll get a ton of votes from them!!  I don’t have the figures in front of me and my memory ain’t what it used to be, but I think it was about the same number of employees displaced when the air park operations ceased as when the Moraine plant shut down.  Just because you think that OH-3 won’t include the air park in the future doesn’t mean that it’s not important to those people for the election that you’re in NOW!
     
    >>> I’m fine with the criticism. It keeps me humble. <<<
    Since when have you been humble????  I’ve known you since about 1985 and “humble” has never been an adjective that I’d use to describe you!!
     
    David Lauri – You are dead on with your comments above!!   I even clicked the “thumbs up” for you! ;)
  16. David Esrati June 17, 2010 / 5:48 pm

    @Bubba- Manufacturing vs Distribution. I’m in favor of us making things in this country again- for all kinds of reasons- including national defense.

    Also- the pay and the spin-offs of Moraine Assembly were higher.

    They are both key issues- however, the Airpark came because of handouts from Government. GM, until recently could only say they got highways built, transit systems decimated and cheap gas…. never mind.

     

  17. Jeff Dziwulski June 17, 2010 / 6:48 pm
    Brookings is doing a pretty good job of documenting the train wreck that is our metropolitan economy.  Even with the current declines, as of 2008 (using the Department of Commerce regional economic accounts), manufacturing accounted for 15.6% of the total compenstion (wages, salaries, and benefits) in the metro area.  This was the second highest, after Government (all levels), which is at 23.9%.  

    The rankings by % are:

    Govt. 23.9%
    Manufacuturing: 15.6%
    Health & Human Services: 13.4%
    Professional, Scientific & Technical:  7.5%
    Retail & Wholesale Trade: 6.8%

    Together these sectors account for 67.3% of the total metro area  compensation. 

    If manufacuturing continues to decline at the same rate as between 2001 and 2008 the sector will lose an additional 24,311 positions by 2015,  for an aggregate loss in compensation to the region of $1,632,000,000 ($1.6 billion), in 2008 dollars.   ‘

    If manufacturing declines at the comparatively lower rate  of the 1990s, the loss will be 4,400 positions for an aggregate loss in compensation of $295,000,000.   The region can recover from this loss, but won’t recover from a decline as steep as the 2000s.  If we follow the 2000s trend even by 2015 there will sill be an aggregate loss of 2,400 jobs in the metro area since 2008  and a drop in compensation of $1B in 2008 dollars.

    Manufacturing isnt the only sector losing jobs.  Of the top sectors shown here is the loss by 2015, based on the 2000’s trends:

    Govt (all levels):  4,396 positions projected to be lost
    Retail & Wholesale:  8,756 positions to be lost.

    Gainers are health care (6,472 positions) and professional/scientific/technical (1,912).  Some of these techy jobs could be indirect result of defense spending.

    In any case this represents a big loss in living wage jobs, which is going to have various consequences both in the near and long term.

    Have a nice day.

    :-)

  18. Donald Phillips June 18, 2010 / 12:04 pm
    I’m either reflexively voted a “turd” by the Metroids who don’t like to be inconvenienced with critique (a la their foppish devotion to Richard Florida and the retired doctor-cum-health care triagist), or else “the people” , as evidanced by my consistantly high tallies, secrectly covet an alternative to the social Stalinism that prevails on this site and DaytonMostMediocre.commedy.

    If  not for me, Mr. Esrati, your site would also be a hecatoumb for  failed ideology.

  19. jstults June 19, 2010 / 1:28 pm
    Greg Hunter:

    Since Missile Boy Mikey has been able to discern the nuances of missile defense…

    Funny C-SPAN vid (if you can stomach the lawyer speak), chickenhawk indeed; Sit Down Mikey!

  20. Greg Hunter June 21, 2010 / 2:01 pm
    Jeffery Thank You for the information and Mr. Stults I saw the video and the DDN bailed him out of his horrible gaffe.
    Embarrassing, but he was no worse than DeWine on the Senate Intelligence (Oxymoron Alert) Committee.

     
    ThinkProgress contacted Turner’s office for comment on the incident. Andy Bloom, communications director for Turner, told us that Turner has never served in the military and has no substantive military experience. Asked if Turner was participating in a coordinated effort to smear Korb, Bloom said, “I can’t be certain.”
    Turner is a classic “chickenhawk,” a term used to refer to strident war proponents who have never personally experienced war. Korb, on the other hand, is a Navy captain who served in Vietnam. He has served in the Pentagon, taught at the Naval War College and Coast Guard Academy, and has twice traveled to Iraq. He recently returned from a 10-day visit to Baghdad (see his dispatch here).

    Mr. Turner is nothing more than an empty suit which seems to fit the type of intelligence required by the Dayton Business Community as anyone with questions, opinions or ideas that do not originate from THEM are discarded.  Of course many of them are running their companies into the ground.  It is fun watching the end of the empire from a front row seat.  Of course it easy for them as it is always a Democrats fault…..  Weak

  21. Greg Hunter June 21, 2010 / 2:07 pm
    Here is Marty doing some bailing for the Chickenhawk

    My own view? There’s something to Turner’s claim that he isn’t a partisan. (He’s also not right-winger.) But he is a combatant. He likes a good fight. A lot of people in Dayton know that. Korb got under his skin. What happened then wouldn’t surprise some locals.

  22. Donald Phillips June 22, 2010 / 1:25 pm
    Ah… The mob speaks. Eleven votes! Aren’t I an expedient straw dog.

    Meanwhile Mary Worth hears conspiratorial whispers behind Margaret Dunstead’s door.

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