Trump will lose. The media needs us to think it’s close.

We will see close to $20B spent this election cycle and much of it is going into the advertising/media ecosystem. Our local broadcasters, newspapers, and social media platforms are looking at huge injections of cash to prop up their pathetic business models. If it’s close- the gravy train continues to pull up and deposit money into their hands, if it’s going to be a blowout the money stops.

Reality: Women and abortion will guarantee not only Trump losing, but Republicans losing where gerrymandering can’t guarantee their wins (like in Ohio- where “Citizens not Politicians” are working to end the insanity of Ohio’s gerrymandering). Other ballot initiatives to legalize recreational pot, to end gerrymandering, and to legalize abortion, will also bring Harris/Walz voters out. It won’t even be close. The “childless cat ladies” will have the last laugh.

Update, Oct 28, 2024, The Lincoln Project released an ad that supports my prediction:

But, this Tuesday in the debate the people will see the difference between brilliance and buffoonery, as Trump has a meltdown when he finally realizes he isn’t running against Joe Biden anymore. He’ll try to lie and he will be taken apart. He’ll try the poor me defense, claiming the system is rigged against him, and he’ll be embarrassed to find out what a reality check looks like. Sure he’ll whine about the immigration issue- further building his isolationist racist agenda, and Harris will have to come up with an answer- seeing as Biden dumped this problem on her- and while she can point out the Republicans in Congress voted to not allocate resources to the problem, she has to be able to parry in a way JoeBob HoldMyBeer can understand.

When you have people like Dick and Liz Cheney saying no to Trump and that they will vote for Harris, when you have former members of Trump’s cabinet (the ones who aren’t in prison) talking about his instability and insanity, hopefully rational conservative voters will either switch or skip.

While the rabid MAGA morons make a lot of noise, and some billionaires with issues- like Elon Musk, Miriam Adelson and Peter Theil have made right wing nut jobs their passion projects, the final decision rests with the voters who will realize that anyone who says “I’ll be a dictator for a day” is a menace to democracy. While I’ll never discount the stupidity of people in large groups, the truth is the rhetoric of division is tiring, old, and depressing. Negativity isn’t the way you move forward- and is generally a losing tactic. Harris focusing on a better future with a positive vision will always prevail. Even Hitler talked about a greater Germany, yet Trump fails to clearly state his case. He’s great at pointing fingers at wrongs, but has no concrete positive clear plan for the future.

Sure, Kamala Harris wasn’t chosen through the primary to be at the top of the ticket- unless Biden fell over dead (and that could still happen), but her legitimacy was cemented in place when she surprised the nation with her pick of a veteran, teacher, coach from the flyover states- with nary an Ivy League degree between them. The only people who can’t see the strategy of the pick are the ones that are too engrossed in their racist views about Harris’ choice of how to define her race. Is she Black, is she Indian? She’s a woman and she’s human and unlike Trump, she’s never declared bankruptcy, been divorced 3x after committing adultery, or said anything remotely like she “can grab them right in the pussy.”

How Trump ever got elected in the first place is a sad commentary on the frustrations of American’s with the 2 party political system. The fact we’re still not fixing any of the major mistakes of the past should be at the forefront of the discussion- but they’re not.

I’m waiting for a candidate that proposes to make sure no state has more Senators than they have house members, and the citizens of D.C., Puerto Rico, the Marshall Islands etc- all have representation, that the Federal Election Commission is dissolved and rebuilt at the same time that Citizens United is overturned.

It’s time for public funding of candidates, a true voter information system, donor registration to match voter registration, with real time reporting and real limits. We also need to stop members of Congress from being allowed to trade stocks, and no government employee or elected representative should ever have better health care than every other American. If Harris just said the above in her debate opener- it would be over before Donald even opens his mouth.

This country has plenty of problems. Some, we refuse to deal with, like gun control. But, if we stop listening to polls, pundits and the media and start demanding real answers and the right to make real choices (ranked choice voting) we may actually make progress. Somehow I really don’t believe the founding fathers really thought that shooting kids with AR15’s was an inalienable right.

The electoral college will make this election seem a lot closer than it will be, but, it still won’t change the fact that Donald Trump and JD Vance will get smacked, along with many of their Republican friends in Congress by something they don’t see coming. Don’t call it a blue wave, call it a red white and blue steam roller flattening the divide and trying to reunite our country after 8 years of insane rhetoric from the whining rich kid who can’t talk five minutes without a lie, attack or a wild assertion of his own inflated self-worth. Trump’s time is up, his story is old, his lies are over.

The only question left is will he try to overthrow the government on November 6th this year when the results come in, instead of waiting till January like last time? And will our government be prepared to stop it, and hold him accountable immediately? Because he, like the latest school shooter, has already hinted at his future crimes, and they’ve gone ignored.

How we ignored the third clause of the 14th amendment and let Trump on the ballot in the first place is still a mystery. At one point in time in America, actual lawful loyalty was expected from candidates. Treason has a clear penalty:

§2381. Treason

Whoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason and shall suffer death, or shall be imprisoned not less than five years and fined under this title but not less than $10,000; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.

(June 25, 1948, ch. 645, 62 Stat. 807; Pub. L. 103–322, title XXXIII, §330016(2)(J), Sept. 13, 1994, 108 Stat. 2148.)

It’s time to fix a whole bunch of things in this country, and the only way to do it, is to clearly and convincingly excise the cancers from our political system. Not just Trump, but the 2 party system, campaign finance, taxation without representation, and the undemocratic electoral college. It’s also time to enforce effective anti-trust, restore the power of the 4th estate to check the other three, and lastly, make sure American’s are truly safe from a predatory reactive health care system and the scourge of mass killings by people armed with military grade guns.

No election result should ever be assumed, so even if you believe me instead of the polls, your job as a rational, thinking educated American is to go out and make sure everyone is registered and motivated to vote this November and is well informed of the consequences of a 2nd Trump presidency instead of a rational forward vision as presented by Harris and Walz.

Song “It won’t be close Nov 5th” By David Esrati